Understanding Market Share – the Effects of Duplicate Listings
With multiple online platforms available for hosts to list their homes as a vacation rental, many online travel agencies (OTAs) and short-term rental providers share common inventory. Such pervasive overlap poses issues when analyzing data for key performance indicators in any particular market. Most notably is the market value and supply in a particular market, where including properties multiple times in an analysis can be misleading. These listings can easily be sorted with a deduplication algorithm–what we call overlap analysis. An overlap analysis provides a more accurate picture of the short-term vacation rental market by excluding duplicates in the results. This analysis is particularly useful in locations where multiple platforms compete for superior inventory offerings and overall market share.
What is an Overlap Analysis?
AllTheRooms Analytics utilizes a proprietary machine-learning algorithm to obtain an accurate picture of market share across multiple providers. This industry-leading tool is able to filter duplicate listings and withdraw data that is clean, accurate and valuable.
Understanding the extent of overlap helps you fully grasp market share and gain a real indication of the size and value of the short-term rental market in any given destination.
Overlap Analysis in Action
Let’s look at an example where we compare the overall active listings with the sorted and filtered listings for short-term rentals in a traditional vacation rental destination. We’ll look at Hawaii from 2015-2018 because it is a mature market with urban and vacation destinations as well as a large sample size for thorough analysis.
We start by conducting an analysis of the four major providers to illustrate the pervasiveness of duplicate listings. As illustrated in the chart below, we can see that 40% of Airbnb listings are also being posted on VRBO and over 50% of VRBO listings are also on Airbnb. Clearly, Airbnb is the most dominant platform, with well over 60% of listings on HomeAway and Tripadvisor appearing on the platform, but not the other way around.
The next question is what does this indicate about the true size and value of the market? With a discrete list of deduplicated listings, we can quickly identify that the amount of all active listings in Hawaii totals just over 52k whereas there are only 31k unique properties. This tells us that nearly 40% of the listings will be listed at least twice.
We can also see how duplicate listings affects supply tracking. In the figure below, we see the change in total supply over the past three years from both data sets. In other words, the number of listings added to a platform each day and the approximate number of new individual properties actually in the market. A noticeable increase in supply occurs in late 2016 and further analysis suggests a few large property managers dumped their supply onto third-party platforms at that time.
Interestingly, The Duplicate Percentage is higher at other points than this particular property manager listing spree, where up to 200% duplication indicates a vast majority of listings were placed on all four major providers at once. A moving average suggests that the proportion of duplicate listings increased over time, suggesting hosts are getting smarter about how they manage multiple distribution channels for their inventory by either adding multiple providers over time or listing each new property on all platforms at once.
Clearly, we see similar supply trends, but only one is a true measure of market size, and furthermore, potential value. Another way to look at this is to sum the ADR for all the listings in a location, getting a sense as to the nightly market earning potential. If judged solely by active listings, the total market value would be over $2.7 million. However, looking at unique listings brings the total to just over $1.8 million. A 33% gap in value due to duplicate listings is a gross overestimation and can be misleading when looking at additional market dynamics taking place that rely on supply and ADR inputs.
Fortunately, AllTheRooms Analytics’ overlap analysis has you covered. AllTheRooms Analytics has the most complete and comprehensive market data. Our engineers and data analysts specialize in curated solutions and historical trends for any vacation rental region. For clients interested in expanding their knowledge and expertise on the hospitality and short-term vacation rental market, contact us for a consultation and learn how our suite of analytics solutions can benefit your property.
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