AllTheRooms Analytics tracks all key performance indicators for individual properties, including revenues, occupancy rates, ADRs, and supply in any given market. As a result, we are able to use unique algorithms to predict the earnings and upcoming success of companies like Airbnb.
Taking into account Airbnb’s host service and guest service fees in U.S. markets, the home sharing platform takes anywhere from 9% to 15% commission, on average, of each booking. The fees are calculated using a variety of factors ranging from the total price of the booking, the length of stay, and the characteristics of the listing.
Based on the national fee average of 12%, it is clear that Airbnb is poised to earn significant revenues for the remainder of 2019 in U.S. markets. Coupled with the real data for the first four months of 2019 and the year-over-year comparison to 2018, our forecasts reveal just how much (and specifically when) Airbnb markets are set to surge.
Early in 2019, Airbnb markets witnessed significant growth during the period in which travelers typically embark on their winter vacations. Starting on the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend (January 21st) and lasting through Presidents’ Day weekend (February 16th), Airbnb hosts in the U.S. earned over $740 million, translating to nearly $90 million in revenue for the home sharing platform. Across that same period in 2018, Airbnb reeled in just over $65 million — translating to a 36% year-over-year increase in revenue.
Following the yearly trends, the next surge in ADRs and revenues took place in mid-March. Aligning with many universities’ spring breaks and many travelers’ spring vacations, this revenue influx is a theme seen on a yearly basis.
However, the uptick realized this March was largely unprecedented. U.S. hosts earned nearly a billion dollars in revenue, equating to more than $119 million for Airbnb. Compared to 2018, when Airbnb took in less than $96 million, the year-over-year increases in earned revenue for the month of March come out to an impressive 24.9%.
Mid-Summer Peak Seasonality
Just as is the case for ski resorts, amusement parks, and tax accountants, the vacation rental industry is highly dependent on seasonality. When looking at the AllTheRooms’ macro-level data of yearly Airbnb earnings, it becomes glaringly clear just how important the summer months are.
Throughout the midsummer months of July and August, Airbnb is forecasted to make unprecedented revenues that flirt with nearly $60 million per day. Taken in sum, the two-month span between July and August of 2018 amounted to over $2.3 billion in host revenue. That same period for 2019 is set to surmount $2.66 billion. The $319 million in revenue earned by Airbnb will be a 15% increase from the previous year. Living up to these projections would make an IPO (Initial Public Offering) all the more enticing for the privately-owned company.
Holiday Weekend Projections
Memorial Day Weekend
Jumping forward to our projections for the remainder of 2019, the first notable upcoming influx is predicted to happen over Memorial Day Weekend. From Friday, May 24th to Sunday, May 26th, inflated ADRs and occupancy rates are projected to provide hosts with a cool $148 million over just a three-night weekend. The nearly $18 million collected by Airbnb will be a 16% improvement from last year’s revenue of roughly $15 million.
Labor Day and Thanksgiving Weekend
The two most prominent remaining peaks in our Airbnb projections for 2019 occur over the Labor Day and Thanksgiving weekends. Labor Day is many Americans’ last-ditch opportunity for a summer getaway, and more people are traveling for Thanksgiving than ever before.
Labor Day Weekend in 2018 — the three-night span from Friday, August 31st to Sunday, September 2nd — provided hosts with over $137 million in revenue and Airbnb with over $16 million. For 2019’s Labor Day Weekend, both hosts and Airbnb are projected to earn 9% more than the preceding year ($12 million more for hosts and $1.4 million more for the company).
For Thanksgiving weekend in 2019, Airbnb hosts can expect to see similar upticks in ADRs and revenues. Hosts are projected to earn over $12 million more in revenue, while Airbnb is expected to earn $1.5 million more across the three-night period.
Overall Statistics for 2019
Drilling into the key dates, holidays, and events is one way to analyze a market, but another is to simply take the data in sum. In order to gauge how well Airbnb is predicted to perform, we need to look at the aggregate numbers for the entire calendar year of 2019.
Based on the first quarter results for 2019, and our projections for the remainder of the year, Airbnb is set to make $1.26 billion in 2019. This increase — 14.7% — is impressive, especially given competitor Expedia’s recent projections of 11% for 2019. For a company currently valued at $31 billion, Airbnb is certainly mature but is still growing at the rate of a prosperous startup. AllTheRooms Analytics will follow up at the end of 2019 to see how the company lived up to these expectations.